Leaving California Pays Off for Many: New Study Shows Big Housing Savings and Faster Paths to Homeownership
A UC Berkeley California Policy Lab analysis shows Californians who moved out of state from 2016 to 2025 saved about $671 per month on housing and became 48% more likely to own a home within seven years of relocating.
Key takeaways
- Average monthly housing savings: Movers cut costs from $2,376 to $1,705 — about $671 less per month. Source: Los Angeles Times.
- Rent reduction for renters: Renters who left paid roughly 30% less — about $631 a month. Source: Fox Business.
- Homeownership gains: After seven years, those who left were 48% more likely to own (an 11-point increase); arrivals to California saw a 27% (6-point) rise. Sources: Fox Business, Los Angeles Times.
- Top destination states: Per 10,000 residents annually, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Arizona received the largest net inflows. Source: Los Angeles Times (California Policy Lab analysis).
Main story
The study and methods
The paper, titled “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis,” follows the same households from 2016 to 2025 to show how moving changes finances and homeownership prospects. Researchers measured total monthly housing costs — including mortgage or rent, utilities, property taxes and insurance — to compare real living costs across neighborhoods. Reporting and analysis draw on the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley and reporting by the Los Angeles Times.
Housing cost breakdowns
- Overall monthly housing costs: Movers averaged $2,376 in California and dropped to $1,705 in destination communities — a reduction of about $671 per month. Source: Los Angeles Times.
- Renters: Those renting outside California paid roughly 30% less — about $631 lower monthly rent. Source: Fox Business.
- Home prices for owners: Destination neighborhoods’ median home prices were about $396,000 lower — roughly 48% less — making buying feasible for households priced out in California. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business.
Homeownership outcomes
Measured over seven years, people who left California were 48% more likely to own a home than they had been while living in the state — an increase of 11 percentage points. By contrast, people who moved into California from elsewhere were 27% more likely to own after seven years (a 6-point rise). The difference underscores how cost variation affects life choices and wealth-building. Sources: Fox Business, Los Angeles Times.
Where Californians moved
Most moves concentrated in nearby lower-cost Western states. On a per-10,000-people basis, Nevada gained an annual net inflow of 81, Idaho 64, Oregon 37 and Arizona 36. Sun Belt states such as Texas, Tennessee and Florida saw much smaller net gains. The pattern reflects many families seeking lower housing costs while keeping regional ties. Source: Los Angeles Times (California Policy Lab analysis).
Who is leaving California
The study finds departures increasingly come from more affluent neighborhoods. Between 2016 and 2025 the share of movers leaving from the top third of median-income neighborhoods rose by 6.4 percentage points. On average, the neighborhoods people left were about 8.7% more affluent than before the pandemic — signaling that middle- and upper-income families also trade high prices for more housing and stability elsewhere. Source: Los Angeles Times.
Statewide context on costs
California’s everyday prices add up: groceries run ~11% higher, gas about 40% higher and utilities roughly 61% higher than the U.S. average. Those higher costs help explain why families who move can see quick financial relief even if incomes fall modestly after relocation. Source: Fox Business.
Policy and local trends
The paper highlights long-standing affordability challenges with no easy fixes and shows county-level population shifts: for example, Sacramento County had a net loss of about 71,100 residents from 2016 to 2025 in the analysis. Executive Director Evan White emphasized the roughly $400,000 drop in median home prices in destination neighborhoods as a key reason families can buy after leaving. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business, YouTube presentation.
Implications for Hesperia, California
Economic impact: Hesperia residents facing high Southern California housing costs may see concrete benefits from relocating to nearby lower-cost states. Monthly savings of roughly $600–$700 can free income for debt reduction and down payments. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business.
Housing and homeownership: Selling into a tight California market and buying out of state could give Hesperia households far more housing for their money. The destination median home price drop (~$396,000) suggests families could reach ownership faster after a move. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business.
Local politics and services: Increased departures could reduce local tax bases and school funding, pressuring policymakers to balance services and budgets. Some voters may point to mobility and market forces — not more state spending — as a remedy. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business.
Community trade-offs: Remaining in Hesperia preserves proximity to jobs, schools and family, while moving often accelerates wealth-building through lower bills and faster homeownership. The study suggests many Californians are choosing the latter path. Source: Los Angeles Times.
Practical advice: Prospective movers should compare total housing costs — mortgage or rent plus utilities, taxes and insurance — not only list prices. The study shows totals can swing hundreds of dollars a month in favor of lower-cost states. Sources: Los Angeles Times, Fox Business.
Sources and reporting
- Analysis by the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley and reporting by the Los Angeles Times and Fox Business.
- Primary articles and materials:
