Massachusetts Loses About 182,000 Residents to Domestic Out-Migration
Massachusetts (Our Hesperia) – Massachusetts is losing roughly 182,000 residents to domestic out-migration from 2020–July 2025, driven by high living costs and declining international arrivals — a trend concentrated among younger adults that threatens long-term workforce strength.
- Large net domestic loss: ~182,000 residents lost to domestic moves from April 2020–July 2025, per the Pioneer Institute.
- International inflows slowed: International migration fell from about 77,957 in 2024 to 40,240 in 2025, per the UMass Donahue Institute.
- Workforce and jobs lag: Private-sector employment is down ~18,000 jobs since January 2020 while the U.S. grew 5%+, and unemployment rose to 4.8% (Dec. 2025).
- Opportunity for other cities: Places like Hesperia, CA could gain residents, workers and businesses as Massachusetts exporters seek lower costs.
Key findings and numbers
Net domestic out-migration from April 2020 to July 2025 is estimated at about 182,000 residents, a loss the Pioneer Institute says is hollowing out the state’s workforce and economy. For the year ending July 2025, the state recorded a net domestic loss of 33,000, while international migration added about 40,000 residents.
A structural shift, not a pandemic blip
The Pioneer Institute analysis emphasizes this is not solely a temporary remote-work or pandemic effect. Domestic departures were rising before 2020 and have remained elevated through July 2025. Those leaving are disproportionately younger adults — especially ages 26 to 34 — which threatens entrepreneurship, home formation and the future tax base.
How migration has changed
Massachusetts relied on large international inflows from 2022–2024 — which helped the labor force reach 3.9 million in 2024 — but federal and global shifts produced a marked slowdown. The UMass Donahue Institute reports international migration fell from roughly 77,957 in 2024 to 40,240 in 2025. Nationwide, U.S. net international migration dropped from ~2.7 million (2023–24) to ~1.3 million (2024–25), stressing states that had leaned on newcomers.
Employment and competitiveness lag
Private-sector employment in Massachusetts remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a net decline of about 18,000 jobs (≈ -0.55%) since January 2020, while the national private-sector grew over 5%. Rapid-growth states such as Florida, North Carolina and Texas exceeded 10% private-sector growth in that span. The statewide unemployment rate rose to 4.8% (Dec. 2025), up from 3.2% in April 2023, and now exceeds nearby New England states — a consideration for firms deciding where to expand.
Underlying affordability problems
State data and independent analyses point to housing shortages and high living costs as primary drivers. Massachusetts reports net domestic out-migration averaging roughly 27,400 annually since 2013, and cites tight housing supply as a core challenge (Mass.gov). Other pressures — child care, health care and education costs — compound the problem and push people toward lower-cost states.
How Massachusetts compares nationally
In absolute terms, Massachusetts ranks sixth among states and jurisdictions for the total number of residents lost to domestic movement, trailing New York, Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, D.C., and California, according to the Commonwealth Beacon. On a per-capita basis, the UMass Donahue Institute places Massachusetts near the bottom, ranking 46th in domestic migration rates.
Implications for Hesperia, California
The Massachusetts exodus presents an opportunity for Sunbelt and inland communities. Hesperia and San Bernardino County could see inflows of workers and entrepreneurs seeking lower housing costs and taxes. Potential effects include:
- Economic opportunity: New residents can bring skills, savings, and demand for housing, retail and services, aiding local growth.
- Workforce recruitment: Local employers can highlight lower housing costs, lower state taxes and family-friendly living to attract skilled hires.
- Housing and infrastructure: Increased demand will require proactive zoning, school planning and infrastructure investment to avoid bottlenecks.
- Fiscal and policy lessons: Massachusetts’ experience underlines how taxes, regulations and high costs can drive outflows — a talking point for local policymakers focused on affordability and streamlined permitting.
- Social effects: In-migration of younger families can boost school enrollments and civic institutions but will require childcare, training and public-safety investment.
Practical actions for Hesperia officials and stakeholders
City leaders, chambers and employers should update workforce development plans, coordinate with county economic development, and design targeted outreach emphasizing job openings, housing options and lower taxes. Prepare housing and infrastructure strategies now to absorb newcomers while preserving affordability for long-time residents.
“Losing people in their prime working and family-forming years reduces entrepreneurship and workforce depth for decades.” — Pioneer Institute analysis
Sources and further reading
- Pioneer Institute: “Domestic outmigration is hollowing out Massachusetts’ workforce and economy”
- Commonwealth Beacon: “Mass population squeaks to growth but national immigration slowdown reveals cracks”
- UMass Donahue Institute: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 state population estimates summary
- Mass.gov: “No Growth Housing Needs”
