WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño conditions are now present in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
For most readers, the main takeaway is not a single storm or cold snap. El Niño is a broad climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that can shift weather odds over months. NOAA’s Ocean Service says a developing El Niño can also raise the chance of high-tide flooding in some U.S. coastal areas.
What NOAA is seeing
In its June 11 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory. The agency said above-average sea-surface temperatures developed over the past month across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific.
NOAA’s latest weekly readings showed the Niño-3.4 index at +0.7 degrees Celsius, the Niño-4 index at +0.7 degrees Celsius and the Niño-1+2 index at +2.1 degrees Celsius. Those indexes track ocean warmth in the tropical Pacific, which forecasters use to judge whether El Niño is building.
How strong could it get?
NOAA said its North American Multi-Model Ensemble, including the NCEP CFSv2 model, points to El Niño intensifying into winter 2026-27. The Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong El Niño at 63% for the November-January period.
The agency said that kind of event could rank among the largest in the historical record that goes back to 1950.
What El Niño means
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. During El Niño, warmer-than-average waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can change how air moves over the ocean. That can influence temperature, rainfall and storm patterns far from the Pacific.
But El Niño does not produce the same weather everywhere. It changes the odds, not the outcome. Some places may see wetter or drier conditions, while others may notice little change.
Why coastal residents should pay attention
NOAA’s Ocean Service says El Niño can increase the risk of high-tide flooding in parts of the United States. That makes the forecast relevant even for people far from the equatorial Pacific.
A practical step for coastal residents is to watch local flood forecasts and NOAA seasonal updates as winter approaches, especially if homes, roads or businesses are in low-lying areas.
The bottom line
NOAA’s message is clear: El Niño is already here, and forecasters expect it to strengthen over the coming months. The advisory from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is the official forecast to follow, especially for anyone watching winter weather or coastal flooding risks.
